Dunrobin’s Lawson in second in latest Compass election poll

OTTAWA – Political unknown, Dunrobin’s Alex Lawson, has moved in to second place in the race for Ottawa’s next mayor in the most recent Ottawa Compass-iPolitics election poll.

The surprise part is Lawson, who announced his campaign for mayor in West Carleton Online on Feb. 3, has passed Kitchissippi Ward Coun. Jeff Leiper who has a much more established name in Ottawa politics as Leiper finishes up his third term as councillor and announced his candidacy for mayor at approximately the same time.

The less-of-a-surprise part is Lawson’s own internal polling last May felt he was in the best position to advance in the race for mayor which concludes after the Oct. 26 election.

In the latest iPolitics poll, Mayor Mark Sutcliffe remains in first with 36 per cent of the vote; Lawson is now in second with 26 per cent of the vote; Leiper is in third with 25 per cent of the vote and economist Neil Saravanamutto at 11 per cent.

The poll was commissioned by Ottawa Compass and iPolitics. Liaison Strategies surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Ottawa residents from July 17 to July 19. For the total sample, the margin of error is plus and minus 3.09 percentage points.

Liaison Strategies principal David Valentin said Sutcliffe’s declining vote share masks a race that’s becoming increasingly favourable for the incumbent.

“The big winner is Mark Sutcliffe, who went from having a very narrow lead to having a much larger lead, even though his own support dropped,” David Valentin said in an interview with iPolitics. “Losing is the new winning.”

For Lawson’s part, he was delighted with the recent polling.

“I’m now in second, ahead of a councillor who’s been at City Hall for 12 years,” Lawson released in a statement today (July 22). “In May, only a few months ago, I was at 14 per cent. Today I’m at 26 per cent. I’ve nearly doubled while everyone else has fallen flat or slid backward.”

Lawson hopes he is able to pick up more votes and unite those electors not interested in seeing Sutcliffe return.

“The pollster has dubbed this, ‘losing is the new winning’ for Mark Sutcliffe,” he said. “His own support fell from 46 per cent in the spring, to 36 per cent today, and the experts still say he’s winning. Why? Because the change vote is split four ways. Sixty-two per cent of decided voters picked a challenger. Only 36 per cent want four more years of the same. The one thing keeping Sutcliffe in that chair is that Ottawa hasn’t gotten behind a single candidate yet. So, the question isn’t whether Ottawa wants change. It’s who can actually beat him. Leiper is sliding, I’m climbing, and I just passed him, pulling support from every corner of the city and not just the suburbs.”

Saravanamuttoo also saw a significant climb from last month’s eight per cent to 11 per cent.

Valentin said Leiper’s declining support raises questions about whether the councillor’s more cautious campaign strategy is resonating with voters. He argued while campaigns often rely on sharp contrasts to gain attention, Leiper is running a more restrained race, while Saravanamuttoo has largely avoided becoming a target for a rival campaign as his support climbed.

Aside from Sutcliffe’s lead, Valentin also pointed to Lawson, who first polled at 14 per cent in May, appears to be extending beyond his original base.

Undecided voters’ rate has also gone down since last month from 37 per cent to 34 per cent.

This month’s polling also showed a slight increase in Sutcliffe’s approval rating from 41 per cent to 45 per cent.

The poll also found more residents believe Ottawa is headed in the right direction compared to last month, another sign of improving sentiment toward the incumbent despite his lower ballot support.

Valentin said one of the more notable findings was the changing lists of priorities for Ottawa voters.

Transit fell as a top concern, dropping from 18 per cent in June to 11 per cent in July, while concern over crime more than doubled from seven to 15 per cent. Traffic also climbed from 13 to 17 per cent.

He added that while some of the month-to-month movement could reflect differences in the survey sample, the rise in traffic concerns also aligns with more residents returning to the office.

For Lawson, who has been campaigning on reducing developer fees to, in essence, lower house prices and more recently, a ring road for Ottawa and more equitable funding for road infrastructure, he says he is the only alternative to Sutcliffe.

“If you want Sutcliffe gone, I’m the only one who can do it,” Lawson said. “The numbers say so. If you’ve been on the fence, now is the time to come off. This is where the real fight starts. Sutcliffe has the war chest, the insiders, and the machine, and they’re betting the change vote stays split until election day. Let’s prove them wrong. I build things that work. I know how a city runs. I know what things cost. The change vote is there for the taking. Let’s pull it together and end this. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”